The Federal Brain Drain: What OPM Data Reveals

The federal workforce is experiencing a seismic shift. Mass layoffs, hiring freezes, early retirement incentives, and political restructuring are reshaping the government at an unprecedented pace. OpenFeds tracks it all — 2.07 million employees across 128 agencies — using data from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

The $49,000 Salary Gap

One of the most striking findings from our analysis of OPM data is the salary gap between employees who leave federal service and their replacements.

On average, departing federal employees earned $49,000 more than the new hires brought in to replace them. This isn't just about saving money — it represents a massive loss of institutional knowledge and expertise.

Senior GS-14 and GS-15 employees with decades of experience in areas like procurement, policy analysis, and program management are being replaced — when they're replaced at all — by entry-level staff who will take years to develop equivalent competency.

The Retirement Cliff

The federal workforce has a demographics problem that predates any political administration. Across many agencies, a staggering percentage of the workforce is approaching retirement eligibility.

The numbers are alarming:

• 54.5% of the Selective Service System workforce is near retirement eligibility
• Multiple agencies have 30%+ of their workforce within five years of retirement
• Technical agencies (NASA, DOE national labs, NIST) face the steepest cliffs in specialized roles
• The problem compounds: as senior staff retire, mid-career employees are promoted, creating gaps at every level

DOGE Impact: 10,721 RIFs in 2025

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative has accelerated workforce reduction through Reductions in Force (RIFs). In 2025 alone, 10,721 RIFs have been executed across the federal government.

OpenFeds tracks these in real-time, mapping which agencies are most affected, which job series are being eliminated, and what the downstream effects look like. Our DOGE impact tracker shows:

• Which agencies have seen the largest percentage workforce reductions
• The geographic distribution of layoffs — which communities are most affected
• How RIFs compare to natural attrition and voluntary separations
• The skill sets being lost and whether they can realistically be replaced

What the Data Shows

Beyond the headline numbers, OpenFeds provides granular analysis that tells a more nuanced story:

• Salary explorer: Compare compensation across agencies, job series, and locations. See how federal pay compares to private sector equivalents.
• Brain drain analysis: Track which agencies are losing the most experienced employees and whether hiring is keeping pace.
• Workforce trends: See how agency sizes have changed over time — some agencies have grown while others have contracted dramatically.
• Agency profiles: Deep dives into each of the 128 agencies we track, including demographics, pay distributions, and turnover rates.

Why This Matters

The federal workforce isn't abstract — these are the people who process Social Security checks, inspect food safety, manage air traffic control, conduct medical research, and maintain national defense. When institutional knowledge walks out the door, the effects ripple through every program and service the government provides.

OpenFeds makes this visible. Visit openfeds.org to explore the data, track DOGE impacts, and understand what's happening to the federal workforce in real-time.